
The 84th annual Academy Awards will be wrapping up in about nine hours from now, but that still gives me the opportunity to give you my annual “Shouda” and “Willa” predictions in advance of tonight’s show. The “Shoudas” are who I would award the Oscar to in each category and the “Willas” are who will actually take the hardware home this evening. It’s been a great year in film, with many memorable efforts and a few that I simply can’t wait to own and watch until the end of time. With heavy competition and multiple worthy performances brings tough choices – but my goal is to do just that for you on Oscar Afternoon. So let’s do it shall we?
(Disclaimer: I did not italicize/underline/quote the films because it would have pushed release back longer than I wanted this afternoon. My apologies for that fact…but I hate laptop mouse technology and felt like writing this more comfortably than at my desk.)
BEST PICTURE
We’re really looking at three films here of the nine nominated, though all have their merits. Woody Allen’s Midnight in Paris was a great movie, but the ending kept it from being even better. I loved it, but it’s not going to win. Hugo was really special, but it’s not going to win a Best Picture Oscar. Virtually no one who saw Extremely Loud, Incredibly Close (particularly critics) liked it; making it potentially the most shocking Best Picture nominee in history…it has zero chance. War Horse was a sprawling epic, the kind of film that might have won twenty years ago, but no longer. The Tree of Life is the film that thinks its quirks and concept are so prolific that it deserves to be showered in praise…but it just didn’t live up to the idea. Moneyball was amazing, but I’m still stunned it was nominated for Best Picture. I own it, I adore it, but Pitt would have a much better chance of a win than the film itself. So that brings us to the magic three…a trio perhaps stronger than any in recent memory as a whole.
The Help is a wonderful film, from the acting to the casting to the directing to the cinematography to the sound to the reflection of Stockett’s incredible book. It’s truly beautiful and has that Forrest Gump or Benjamin Button feel to the way the flashbacks are utilized.
Viola Davis and Octavia Spencer both could walk away with Oscars on Sunday and in doing so could become the first duo of African Americans to do so on the same night. Jessica Chastain, also nominated, was flawless in her role as the troubled, but partially heroic Celia Foote. Emma Stone was, as usual, very good as well. I’ve seen The Help three times and it gets better with each viewing. It’s a timeless movie. This film could win, absolutely, but in all actuality, Oscar is a two-film race this year.
George Clooney’s work in The Descendants is the best of his career, an extraordinary statement when one peruses the actor’s resume. It’s also Alexander Payne’s best movie, another staggering opinion to be able to write, considering Sideways. The Hawaiian tale of a family, a secret coming to light, a wealth of fortune, and the simple pain of infidelity and deceit all contribute to one of those films that it’s hard to ever turn down when given a chance to watch again…even if you’ve seen it a hundred times. Until this week, it was my pick to win the award, but I believe I’ve figured out how to award all three of these films in their own way tonight.
The most unique motion picture to arrive in many moons is The Artist, a brilliant story of the silent movie era, the advent of technology and those it affected, all wrapped around a distant love story and a “meant to be” mentality in many respects. Jean Dujardin, who reprised his George Valentin role on Saturday Night Live a few weeks ago in a surprise cameo for Zooey Deschanel, was masterful from start to finish in both his success and happiness and later his despair and depression. Berenice Bejo, likewise, owned the screen as Peppy Miller. John Goodman, Penelope Ann Miller, James Cromwell, the DOG…the list goes on and on – it was all perfect in the casting phase. As a visual spectacle, it was a treat of simplicity as art. Leaving this film without a smile should be impossible. So good…oh so so good folks. Hazanavicius’ direction was impeccable and The Artist will be talked about for a long time.
SHOUDA
Loved most of the films, particularly the big four, but in the end, the most affecting film of the year was The Artist, because of just how unique it truly was and how masterfully it was executed. If The Descendants or The Help were to win, I would have zero trouble in celebrating those gems, but I highly believe The Artist deserves the honor this year.
WILLA
The Academy will agree with me. The Artist was wonderful, the critics love it, audiences who saw it still talk about it, and it would serve as a way to break the mold in some respects in terms of Best Picture winners. If it isn’t The Artist, it will be The Descendants – which would be awesome as well, but go with the black and white and the deafening silence that captivated the world in 2011.
Okay, so that was long – for the rest…brevity is a virtue.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Pitt was outstanding as Billy Beane but it’s a film that likely will disappear off the ballots of most Academy voters. Oldman is one of the most overlooked actors of the past fifty years but honestly, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy was merely average and was directed as LeCarre would have wanted – light on explanation, heavy on haze and creeping confusion. A Better Life was seen by so few people that the nomination was its win, as great as Bichir was in his role. So we’re down to a silent film star fighting against technology and a Hawaiian businessman dealing with a neurotic family, a tragedy, and his own shortcomings as a father. So…
SHOUDA
How can I pick against Dujardin, traditionally a comedy actor who played depression so well in the back half of The Artist, or Clooney, who has knocked on Oscar’s Lead Actor door for years and just entered his career best performance? Oh…I have to? Okay, okay, then it’s Clooney, because his consistency through the last seven years or so has been better than anyone else’s, particularly because he’s been so much more careful (with a few exceptions) in the roles he has chosen. While I do want to see him break out into more varied roles as he often plays a similar character with similar inflection, he was just perfect in The Descendants.
WILLA
Because I chose The Artist for Best Picture, I think Clooney gets The Descendants its big win here. Either of the two is absolutely deserving though – it’s a great crop of five performances, with Clooney’s at the top.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Michelle Williams will win a Best Actress Oscar, just not this year. Glenn Close is as good as it gets but Albert Nobbs never opened to over half of the country. She could be a major dark horse. I’m as big a Stieg Larsson fan as it gets and I thought Rooney Mara was amazing, but if she wins for her role as Lisbeth Salander, it will be in the third film of the trilogy, same with David Fincher and in the same way as Peter Jackson and The Return of the King. She also still has to deal with following up Noomi Rapace, which is impossible if you’ve seen the original Swedish Millenium trilogy. So we’re down to two, one the most decorated actress in American history and the other in a performance that so totally owned the screen that it was impossible to look away, even in its most difficult moments.
SHOUDA
Here’s the thing about Streep in The Iron Lady. The reason her performance was so spectacular is because the film itself was merely average (at best). I’m a big Thatcher fan but the movie treatment of her life was slow, poorly paced, and at times incredibly dull and boring. Streep was pitch-perfect but at some point, the bar she has set for herself can be her biggest challenge. Viola Davis’ portrayal of Aibileen Clark was the performance of the year. It was so rich, so full of depth and emotion, and so stubbornly vulnerable that it simply should not be denied this year. Also, if you look at my thought in terms of awarding all three films, one should win picture, one should win actor, the third should win actress, and all other awards are up for grabs.
WILLA
Streep won the Golden Globe and has not actually WON a Best Actress Oscar in many years, despite being nominated an obscene (and warranted) number of times. She’s the best of all time, but The Iron Lady as a film and the Academy Awards facing pressure to be more mainstream should both hurt her here. Most are picking Meryl to win anyway, but I’m picking the best performance from the much better movie. Viola Davis – the Oscar is yours.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Plummer won the Golden Globe and he’s often undervalued in acting conversations and could win for Beginners, a film very few actually had a chance to see in the United States. Jonah Hill broke out in Moneyball and then returned to…well…being Jonah Hill with the horrific Allen Gregory on Fox and a pair of less-than-stellar comedies on the way. He was awesome in Moneyball, but an Oscar win just doesn’t feel right at this point. Warrior may have been the most underrated movie of 2011, largely because of its subject matter, but Nick Nolte is a flat-out heavyweight as a talent and he showed it again in the film. Kenneth Branagh’s work as Sir Lawrence Olivier was exceptional but My Week With Marilyn has Oscarless written all over it. Max von Sydow has been nominated in the past, but he’s nominated for a film most critics hated, so he’s not likely to win.
SHOUDA
Plummer finally gets the icing on his career cake for a film that will have most asking their friends when it came out and “Did you see it?” The answer likely will be no, but the performance of an elderly man coming out of the closet, surprising his son, is most definitely award worthy stuff.
WILLA
Plummer – his work was great and the rest of the category just isn’t as strong as in previous years. It’s that simple, the Canadian will get his due.
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
If Supporting Actor largely rests on films the public hasn’t seen, Supporting Actress is the complete opposite. Bridesmaids justifiably made tons of cash and Melissa McCarthy remains the most memorable part of that hilarious film (along with Wiig, who I can’t get enough of), The Help was everywhere and both Spencer and Chastain shined (you could also argue Bryce Dallas Howard, but only two per film per category are allowed), McTeer rounded out Glenn Close in Albert Nobbs, and then there’s Berenice Bejo, whose smile alone was enough to win me over in The Artist. This is a fascinating category because whoever wins, there’s a snub.
SHOUDA
It’s so hard to go against Bejo here. Peppy Miller was an outstanding character and Berenice played her to an off-the-charts level. I’m going to go against her though, simply because Minny Jackson, just like Aibileen Clark, completely dominated the screen whenever she was on it. Octavia Spencer had a few moments in The Help that were the right chances for her to show her stuff and she did so…in spades. Her stuff with Viola was so good, but the stuff with Chastain was just as good, not to mention the stuff with Viola and Emma.
WILLA
Octavia will become the first Alabama woman to leave with an Actress Oscar. She won the Golden Globe, she’s been the front runner for a while, and her performance warrants the Award. Don’t underestimate that the Academy might really like the idea of the headline reading “African American Actresses Sweep the Oscars” across the world on Monday morning. Both Viola and Octavia were so good and so pure in their performances that The Help gets its place in history thanks to both.
BEST DIRECTOR
Allen’s Midnight in Paris was directing perfection, but so was Payne’s The Descendants, Hazanavicius’ The Artist, and of course Scorsese’s Hugo. Malick has done much better work than the artsy overwrought film, The Tree of Life, so this isn’t his year.
SHOUDA
Four deserving possibilities here, but I can only choose one. Usually, Best Picture and Best Director generally go the same way. Scorsese won a Golden Globe, but I don’t see it tonight. Allen could definitely win, but I think he’s more likely to win for Screenplay than here in this category. Trying to decide between The Artist and The Descendants is just too difficult, but if I have to do it, I would pick Hazanivicius because of the way in which he chose to showcase his story. The Artist is a monumental achievement. I also think Tate Taylor deserved a nom for The Help. He’s brand new as a director but he did better than solid work on his first big film.
WILLA
Most seem to be picking Scorsese for one reason or another, but I’m going with the momentum. The Artist is all the talk going into the Academy Awards and I suspect it will still be that way walking out of Los Angeles. I liked four of the five of these films very much and love all five directors. Allen is the dark horse here…he hasn’t won for Best Director since Annie Hall and Midnight in Paris is truly one of his best, despite a rather bland ending.
QUICKIES (The Rest – In the Interest of Time)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Here’s Allen’s award, beating out Wiig, Hazanavicius (because he’ll get Director), and Chandor for Margin Call, which was the best film you DIDN’T see last year. Love it. If Scorsese ends up winning for Director, I’d still say Woody wins here, and it would be hard to disagree.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Sorkin always has a lot of love and did another solid job with Moneyball. Dialogue was the key to the film and no one’s better than Aaron. Here’s Alexander Payne’s award though, along with Nat Faxton, and DEAN PELTON himself, Jim Rash. The Descendants gets the nod for Adapted Screenplay.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Down year in terms of nominees. Puss in Boots was great, Kung-Fu Panda 2 was pretty good, and I dug Rango a lot. I’d say the former if I had to guess…or one of the two nominees I didn’t see, neither big in the United States.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: I’m biased for Reznor and Ross as you know, but Dragon Tattoo, as good as the score was…was outdone by Ludovic Bource. One thing about Dragon Tattoo’s music is that most of it was remixed or similar variations from Nine Inch Nails’ Ghosts release. Bource’s score for The Artist is so good that I find myself listening to it far more than even I thought I would when I purchased it a few months ago. He won the Golden Globe, he’ll win the Oscar for truly special work. He always does Hazanavicius’ movies and tonight he gets recognized for it.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG: Bret McKenzie leaves with an Oscar for Flight of the Conchords tonight. “Man or Muppet” is the best original tune of the year and even Murray could get the Conchords a gig once this show ends tonight.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: I hope to be standing and cheering when Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory wins tonight. The trio of films documenting the case, arrest, trial, and now “freedom” of the West Memphis Three caused my obsession with Damien, Jason, and Jessie and their story. The original docs were so good and so well-done, it’s hard to quantify, and the third installment, which premiered on HBO two months ago was just unreal.
BIGGEST SNUB: Yeah this is my award, and it goes to Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2. It’s one of my top five films of the past seven years and the final chapter wasn’t just good, it was nearly flawless. It has a few tech award noms, but deserved better…somehow. Let’s be honest, Extremely Loud, Incredibly Close yes, but Harry Potter no?
So there’s most of the biggies…at least from me. The one I’m least confident in is Best Director, because Scorsese is such a heavyweight (and 2 or 3 on my all-time list behind Nolan and right there with Fincher) and Hugo was so good. But regardless, I hope this gets you primed for Billy Crystal’s triumphant return tonight to host…which even if it’s only average will still be seen as the best in nearly a decade. He’s just that talented and right for this. I find myself extremely excited for the medley.
I’ve said it before, but if you haven’t seen The Artist, The Descendants, or The Help…you need to do so. Add to that Moneyball, Warrior, Hugo, Margin Call, and Bridesmaids (and ahem! HP) and you’ve done a lot in terms of your film knowledge for the past twelve months. Now, let’s hand out Oscar and head back to the movies. I need to start preparing my 2013 blog.
-JM










Next, we move to one of my favorite directors, although he hasn’t made the sheer volume of films that my top three or four have and my opinion is thus based on a smaller sample size… and I was disappointed overall in “About Schmidt.” Alexander Payne returns in a big way with his tale of a middle-aged man who is dealing with the impending death of his wife as a result of a severe boating accident. We find out the marriage had serious problems, generally because our protagonist is busy with both his career as a lawyer as well as dealing with his extended family and their fortune. As his wife struggles to survive while in a coma, Matt King wants to fix things and try harder to make it work. He then has to deal with his two daughters, the older of which is into a bit of alcohol and has dealt with drug problems.
Just this past Friday, I was finally able to see Michel Hazanavicius’ truly splendid film, “The Artist,” featuring landmark performances of the most stellar variety from Jean Jujardin and Berenice Bejo. Every once in a while, a movie arrives that catches the world completely off guard. “The Artist” may not be for everybody, because it’s such a radical change from what contemporary society has been programmed to accept in entertainment, but it’s the most fun I’ve had in a movie theater in ages. 



















